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Climate projections

Earth from space

Telford & Wrekin Council are working to assess the extent of Climate Change in the Borough, and identify the impact upon our everyday lives. This involves modelling the likely consequences using a variety of scenarios or predictions in order to foresee plausible outcomes.

The direct impacts of climate change and the subsequent consequences are likely to affect all organisations, for example, insurance premiums may rise from weather-related claims. Sea level rises may affect some businesses, whilst food production could become more difficult and expensive. Many businesses may be affected by impacts on their supply chain, particularly where they are dependent on suppliers based in high risk areas.

What to Expect: 

Rising temperatures have already been attributed to changes in weather patterns, such as an increase in the number and intensity of floods, heatwaves and storms. The Borough of Telford & Wrekin and the United Kingdom will likely see the results of climate change as:

  • Warmer and wetter winters
  • Hotter and drier summers
  • Higher average annual temperatures
  • Increase in the number of very hot days in summer
  • Decrease in the number of very cold days in winter
  • Decrease in snowfall events
  • More heavy rain and flash flooding events

In the UK and Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts (including more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems and increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits (FoE, 2010).

picture of a graph displaying Co2 levels

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Projections:

In June 2009, the UK climate projections (UKCP09) were released by Department of Environment , Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Met Office.  Based on the latest scientific understanding the 2009 data is the most accurate climate forecasting tool available in the UK and shows have changes will affect our local areas.  The projections also show for the first time the probability of change which allows for a greater range of results.

The key findings for the Telford and Wrekin area are outlined below by emissions scenario:

  • Increased rainfall during winter months
  • decreased rainfall during summer months
  • Increased overall temperatures, particularly during summer months

This means that there is the increased risk of serious flooding and of drought, leading potentially to crop failures and increased deaths due to heatwaves. 

You can download the report here: Emission scenarios - UKCP09.

Last updated 22/03/2012

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Planning Implementation Team

Address: Telford & Wrekin Council
First Floor Upper
Wellington Civic Offices
Larkin Way (off Tan Bank)
Wellington
Telford
TF1 1LX

Tel: 01952 384241

Email: sustainability@telford.gov.uk

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