Climate projections

Telford & Wrekin Council are working to assess the extent of Climate Change in the Borough, and identify the impact upon our everyday lives. This involves modelling the likely consequences using a variety of scenarios or predictions in order to foresee plausible outcomes.

The direct impacts of climate change and the subsequent consequences are likely to affect all organisations.

For example, insurance premiums may rise due to more claims from weather-related events. Sea level rises may affect some businesses, whilst food production could become more difficult and expensive.

Many businesses may be affected by impacts on their supply chain, particularly where they are dependent on suppliers based in high risk areas.

In the UK and Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts (including more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems and increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits (FoE, 2010).

Climate Projections:

In June 2009, the UK climate projections (UKCP09) were released by Department of Environment , Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Met Office.  Based on the latest scientific understanding the 2009 data is the most accurate climate forecasting tool available in the UK and shows have changes will affect our local areas.  The projections also show for the first time the probability of change which allows for a greater range of results.

For climate data based on the other variables, time periods or for different areas please visit the UKCP09 user interface portal. This online tool allows you to create customised climate projections for different weather variables and for different areas of the UK.

We need to make some assumptions about future emissions of greenhouse gases (and other pollutants) from human activities in order to make projections of UK climate change over the next century. Because we cannot know how emissions will change, we use instead a number of possible scenarios of these, selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). These correspond to a set of comprehensive global narratives, or storylines, that define local, regional and global socio-economic driving forces of change such as economy, population, technology, energy and agriculture - key determinants of the future emissions pathway. The scenarios are alternative conceptual futures to which no probabilities can be attached.

The key findings for the Telford and Wrekin area are outlined below by emissions scenario:

• Increased rainfall during winter months
• decreased rainfall during summer months
• Increased overall temperatures, particularly during summer months

This means that there is the increased risk of serious flooding and of drought, leading potentially to crop failures and increased deaths due to heatwaves. 

You can download the report here: Emission scenarios - UKCP09.